OVER A CUP OF COFFEE – TAMILNADU POLITICS

OVER A CUP OF COFFEE – TAMILNADU POLITICS

Gopu and Shyam met over a cup of coffee as the channels were busy telecasting the news of Rajnikant entering political arena in Tamilandu.  This time in the coffee shop too, they found vociferous voices, as if the whole world has come down.  Of course, the discussion was about Rajnikant expressing his arrival to politics and also as he had said he would contest all the 234 seats in Tamilnadu. 

Gopu said that his age might be a consideration for this action of plunging into politics as he is nothing to lose from the of theprofession which has given everything to him.  The followers or fans of his can no more be kept with him with new films.  If they have to be kept in the hold from nowonwards, the only way is to utilize their energies on a common goal, which is nothing but entering politics.  For a man, who has kept himself aloof, without expressing any clear views on many subjects that were the concern of Tamilnadu including Jallikattu, Cauvery water issue – he considers that itself may help him to open a new chapter without the impact of such issues and also only with the impact of the movies.  Rajnikant knows full well, that he has kept a particular base of his film following intact, so for. 

Shyam said that the news of the entry into politics is inevitable.  If he does not announce now, then the situation in Tamilnadu which is very fluid now, it will an opportunity lost.  The ruling party’s infighting and split factions and main opposition party’s none to well performance of late is the right opportunity for anyone thinking of entering into politics.  That Kamalhasan is after the CM’s Chair and has told he would announce his plans in a few months, might have also acted as a catalyst for this action of Rajnikant.  The two friends and foes, have been in Oneupmanship and have many a comments made by them directly or indirectly to that effect.  It is obvious that Kamal who had projected himself as an Athiest and have the blessings of DMK is now countered by the religious Rajnikant.

As for the people of Tamilnadu, they have surprised many, whenever such faction fighting has been seen in the Dravidian parties, with supporting MGR when parted company with DMK and supporting J Jayalalitha to oust Janaki as CM.  However they have remained within the Dravidian fold, except when Sri Vasan of Tamil Manila Congress was given 60 odd seats with Rajnikant supporting them.  That cannot be construed as Sri Vasan got that many seats because of Rajnikant but people wanted a change from the Dravidian Parties.  The smaller parties have been riding on the back of DMK and AIADMK to retian their benfits out of the rules of these two parties.  Presently with the DMK not in its formal glory with Stalin and Alagiri not acting in Unison and with the appeal of 2G case in higher courts may not have a chance to   come back until something unusual happens.  As for the AIADMK, there is every chance of splitting further, if the EPS-OPS combine not act in unison and may pave the way for the President’s Rule and ultimate downfall of them.  Herein comes the importance of other people who are in politics of Tamilnadu to take advantage of the situation.  Rajnikant has thrown in his towel before others.  But both Shyam and Gopu were of the opinion that this advantage cannot be fully utilized unless and until the party itself takes shape with adequate ground work for him in a short period.  Apart from the fan following, those who are supporting other parties but fans of Rajnikant to be brought back in their fold within a short period.  Here in also, what the BJP in centre has decided for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls is of importance.  Whether there will be tacit support and backing of Rajnikant to get a fair share of the votes during Lok Sabha polls, and also to get in turn the support of MPs won for his party.

Both Gopu and Shyam felt this is the possibility and perhaps this assured? Help of BJP would have been the cause of the decision of Rajnikant , who was wavering until these years to enter politics. As for BJP, they are interested in getting the backing of MPs from Tamilnadu and which they cannot get on their own.  More will be known before February 2018, when present Tamilnadu EPS-OPS combine, whether they are able to overcome the threat of faction led by TTV Dinakaran, who would spend money like water to get things done in his favour.

OVER A CUP OF COFFEE - R K NAGAR BY-ELECTION

OVER A CUP OF COFFEE - R K NAGAR BYELECTION 

Gopu and Shyam met over a cup of coffee after their phone call after by election result of R K Nagar in Chennai.  Though there were four by elections and the in the West Bengal, Sabang seat Congress which had won earlier with 56% votes lost this time with less than 10% vote, losing the Deposit, this was pushed to the background by the Tamilnadu by-election.  TMC has won the WB seat.  In Arunachal Pradesh in the Pakke-kessang Assembly seat and in UP in the Sikkandra assembly seat BJP has won. 

Thus though the TMC has wrested the seat from Congress in WB in the by-election and BJP has won both in Arunchal Preadesh and UP in by-elections, these were pushed to the background with the result of the victory of TTV Dinakaran, close relative of Sasikala of the breakaway faction of the AIADMK who stood as an Independent with Pressure Cooker as the symbol.  Obviously many households of R P Nagar had the benefit of Pressure Cooker given to them.  Some even doubted what was inside the cooker.

Widespread rumours in Tamilnadu of money being given was around Rs.10000/- per voter and it appears Tamilnadu will never come out of Corruption by its leaders and people.   Gopu was very furious about this aspect of people who also were for freebies for normal day to day activities and also expecting money from parties contesting elections.   Some years before, people used to joke that get the money and vote as you like.  But recently in all elections of Tamilnadu, it seems the highest offerer gets to win.  Gopu also said that the stature of candidates we get has come drastically to a new low with people who are corrupt and expecting to be jailed for their misdemeanours being elected by people purely based on the gifts offered.  Corrupt politician is certain that he would get elected by being the highest offerer to the people.  There is no shame on the part of the candidate as well as the majority of the people of the constituency.

Shyam looked this at a completely different angle and said the Main Opposition party wanted to bring down the government of EPS-OPS combine by dividing the AIADMK and thus wanted mid term elections in which they can create split votes between the factions of AIADMK and win the elections.  How much of the votes of DMK has thus been transferred to TTV in this arguement is not known.  If it is true, the DMK has not credited themselves well as both the factions AIADMK have polled together 85% of votes leaving only 15% to DMK.  It does not augur well for that party.  Shyam was also very critical of the performance of the BJP, who have fielded a candidate knowing fully well they have not worked well in the constituency earlier but taking part in the elections, only to get 50% of the votes of NOTA votes.  The other important factor that  should be seen is that DMK was not alone and their friendly parties who supported them - Congress, Communists, TVC of Thirumavalavan and other smaller parties only to see that their share of votes dwindle further.  

It is now expected there would definitely some changes in the pattern of the ruling by the EPS-OPS combine said Shyam. He said that unless they definitely work together, they cannot keep the following they had and should think that R K Nagar as an isolated incidence where their rivals have given more than them to the electorate.  But only time will tell what happens to the AIADMK Party. 

Shyam also told Gopu that a section of the people of Tamilandu who are against freebies and also consider both DMK and AIADMK should be voted out as they are immersed in corruption are not happy at all with the verdict of R K Nagar and like to have Presdient's rule in Tamilnadu.  These people want the President rule should be for longer time and freebies should be reduced and corrupt taken up severely during this period and bring back Tamilnadu to the national stream and they also say that Tamilnadu which has lost its earlier glory in national competitive examinations should regain its supremacy in education.  Will the youth of Tamilnadu caught in the web of the Maya of Tamil Cinema come out of it and bring Tamilnadu to the past glory in education, employment and development?

Gopu replied that would augur well for Tamilnadu.  Gopu also said the Election Commission has not been serious about complaints of bribes to voters.  Shyam felt the official machinery in Tamilnadu is corrupt and nothing can be done as of now. Both agreed to meet again.